Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Being Right or Making Money



Among those charged was Robert Rizzo, the former city manager of Bell, whose compensation package led the way with annual salary and benefits totaling more than $1.5 million. Prosecutors accused him of illegally writing his own employment contracts and steering nearly $1.9 million in unauthorized city loans to himself and others. He was booked into Los Angeles County Jail and was being held on $3.2-million bail.


The charges follow months of nationwide outrage and renewed debate over public employee compensation since The Times reported in July that the city's leaders were among the nation's highest paid municipal officials.


Cooley described Rizzo as the "unelected and unaccountable czar" of Bell, accusing him of going to elaborate lengths to keep his salary secret. Prosecutors alleged that Rizzo gave himself huge pay raises without the City Council's approval.

"This was calculated greed and theft accomplished by deceit and secrecy," Cooley said.

Rizzo's attorney, James W. Spertus, said the charges came as no surprise and were politically motivated by Cooley, who is running for California attorney general.

"The allegations are mistaken," Spertus said. "They are factually untrue in many readily provable ways."

Cooley denied that his election effort played any part in the decision to file charges.

At a news conference, Cooley accused City Council members of failing to oversee Rizzo's actions, saying that they instead had collected more than $1.2 million in total pay since 2006 for presiding over city agency meetings that never occurred or lasted just a few minutes.

Many city residents greeted news of the charges with joy.

"Finally the crooks are going to suffer what the city suffered for many years," said Carmen Bella, a longtime Bell activist.

About two dozen Bell residents gathered outside City Hall to celebrate. One man used a bullhorn to broadcast the Queen rock song, "Another One Bites the Dust," while others laughed, cheered and applauded.

But at least one resident wondered what would happen to his embattled city.


"Who's going to call the shots?" asked Hassan Mourad, 32. "That's the most important thing right now."


-- Richard Winton and Jack Leonard


Photo: Booking shots of Robert Rizzo, former city manager, and Bell Mayor Oscar Hernandez. Credit: L.A. County Sheriff's Department.



Photos: Arrests in Bell




Tilson's letter delivers an opus on why he thinks Interoil is a good short (it starts at the bottom of page 2). He seems to be responding to the speculation that Tilson might have changed his views on the stock following his reporting a long stake in Interoil in his most recent 13-F."


The best lines:


We've never had more conviction and Interoil is currently our largest bearish position.


After more than a decade of drilling, InterOil has no proven or even probable reserves - just a lot of hype and unfulfilled promises (and more than 200 press releases).



It's red flags galore. IOC is an Australian based company and it gets its largest credit facility from BNP Parabas. BNP Parabas recently issued a gushing report about IOC and its "prospects" for business. Thus, the lender, BNP Parabas, is issuing positive reports on a client company it lends money to. Now follow Edward Speal with me for a moment. Speal had been a director of Interoil for the past seven years but had to leave in June for "personal reasons." He is now the head of BNP Parabus Global Equities and Commodity derivatives - Americas. On September 16, 2010, Speal, after leaving Interoil to go to BNP Parabus, the largest lender to Interoil, files a rule 144 form stating that Edward Speal is exercising 60K options on IOC stock for the net value of $3.6 million. This in and of itself is odd, but combined with a recent announcement that IOC is going to enter discussions with an unnamed party that they don't have a deal with yet, seems like an attempt to hype the stock.


Considering these pieces of information, we think it's only a matter of time before this overvalued company meets with reality. However, because IOC has a history of causing short sellers pain, rather than simply shorting the stock, we asked Phil Davis for a good options strategy that allows DHH followers to take advantage of the IOC situation while staying within our desired risk paramaters. The strategy he proposed is designed to manage risk and provide a nice return if IOC drops in price. It's useful when you think there's a good chance a stock will decline, but you don't know when, and you want to limit your risk.


Together we are  recommending a combination between a bear put spread and selling a naked call. Here's how this works:


BUY 5 March 2011 70 PUT IOC110319P00070000 for approx. $12.05


SELL 5 March 2011 65 PUT IOC110319P00065000 for approx. $9.40


SELL 5 January 2011 85 CALL IOC110122C00085000 for approx. $2.40


This puts you in the $5 March bear put spread at net .25 ($12.05 - $9.40 - $2.40 = 0.25), providing IOC stays below $85 through January's options expiration (21st).  This trade has a $5 upside if IOC is below $65 at March expiration (18th). Note: We are buying or selling 5 puts/calls for each position because that represents about 7.5% of the virtual DHH portfolio, considering the value of the long put position only.  Adjust your positions according to your risk tolerance and portfolio size.) 


The January scenarios are:


#1)  If on January 21, 2011 IOC is below $85 per share (nearly 30% higher than the close on Friday) we will keep the $2.40 per contract premium and reevaluate.


#2)  If on January 21, 2011 IOC is above $85 per share we will be short 500 shares of IOC at $85.


The March scenarios are:


#1) If on March 18, 2011, IOC is below $65 per share the March $70 puts we bought will be worth $5 per contract more than the $65 puts we sold, giving us a $5 profit per contract.

#2) If on March 18, 2011, IOC is between $65 and $70 per share we can roll the options forward to a future expiration date, or depending on the price, take our profits.  For instance, if IOC is at $66 per share, the March $65 PUT we sold can be bought back for $1 per contract, and the March 70 PUT we bought can be sold for $4.  So we would have a $3 per contract profit. Thus, if on March 18th, 2011, IOC is between $65 and $70, our profit is the difference between the two less the net 0.25 paid for the entire position. 


#3) If on March 18, 2011 IOC is above $70 per share we would roll our option trade forward to a future expiration date.


Thus, we will earn the most profit if IOC stays below $65 per share, which we are betting it will.


Summary:  Bear Put Spread and Selling Naked (out of the money) Call for Interoil (IOC) on Monday, October 4, 2010


We also would like to add American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO) to maintain our current slightly long tilt.


From Sabrient's Ratings Report: 



robert shumake

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robert shumake

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 10/6 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning, AP! Welcome to another day full of Kansas City Chiefs news. Read and enjoy.

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robert shumake


Among those charged was Robert Rizzo, the former city manager of Bell, whose compensation package led the way with annual salary and benefits totaling more than $1.5 million. Prosecutors accused him of illegally writing his own employment contracts and steering nearly $1.9 million in unauthorized city loans to himself and others. He was booked into Los Angeles County Jail and was being held on $3.2-million bail.


The charges follow months of nationwide outrage and renewed debate over public employee compensation since The Times reported in July that the city's leaders were among the nation's highest paid municipal officials.


Cooley described Rizzo as the "unelected and unaccountable czar" of Bell, accusing him of going to elaborate lengths to keep his salary secret. Prosecutors alleged that Rizzo gave himself huge pay raises without the City Council's approval.

"This was calculated greed and theft accomplished by deceit and secrecy," Cooley said.

Rizzo's attorney, James W. Spertus, said the charges came as no surprise and were politically motivated by Cooley, who is running for California attorney general.

"The allegations are mistaken," Spertus said. "They are factually untrue in many readily provable ways."

Cooley denied that his election effort played any part in the decision to file charges.

At a news conference, Cooley accused City Council members of failing to oversee Rizzo's actions, saying that they instead had collected more than $1.2 million in total pay since 2006 for presiding over city agency meetings that never occurred or lasted just a few minutes.

Many city residents greeted news of the charges with joy.

"Finally the crooks are going to suffer what the city suffered for many years," said Carmen Bella, a longtime Bell activist.

About two dozen Bell residents gathered outside City Hall to celebrate. One man used a bullhorn to broadcast the Queen rock song, "Another One Bites the Dust," while others laughed, cheered and applauded.

But at least one resident wondered what would happen to his embattled city.


"Who's going to call the shots?" asked Hassan Mourad, 32. "That's the most important thing right now."


-- Richard Winton and Jack Leonard


Photo: Booking shots of Robert Rizzo, former city manager, and Bell Mayor Oscar Hernandez. Credit: L.A. County Sheriff's Department.



Photos: Arrests in Bell




Tilson's letter delivers an opus on why he thinks Interoil is a good short (it starts at the bottom of page 2). He seems to be responding to the speculation that Tilson might have changed his views on the stock following his reporting a long stake in Interoil in his most recent 13-F."


The best lines:


We've never had more conviction and Interoil is currently our largest bearish position.


After more than a decade of drilling, InterOil has no proven or even probable reserves - just a lot of hype and unfulfilled promises (and more than 200 press releases).



It's red flags galore. IOC is an Australian based company and it gets its largest credit facility from BNP Parabas. BNP Parabas recently issued a gushing report about IOC and its "prospects" for business. Thus, the lender, BNP Parabas, is issuing positive reports on a client company it lends money to. Now follow Edward Speal with me for a moment. Speal had been a director of Interoil for the past seven years but had to leave in June for "personal reasons." He is now the head of BNP Parabus Global Equities and Commodity derivatives - Americas. On September 16, 2010, Speal, after leaving Interoil to go to BNP Parabus, the largest lender to Interoil, files a rule 144 form stating that Edward Speal is exercising 60K options on IOC stock for the net value of $3.6 million. This in and of itself is odd, but combined with a recent announcement that IOC is going to enter discussions with an unnamed party that they don't have a deal with yet, seems like an attempt to hype the stock.


Considering these pieces of information, we think it's only a matter of time before this overvalued company meets with reality. However, because IOC has a history of causing short sellers pain, rather than simply shorting the stock, we asked Phil Davis for a good options strategy that allows DHH followers to take advantage of the IOC situation while staying within our desired risk paramaters. The strategy he proposed is designed to manage risk and provide a nice return if IOC drops in price. It's useful when you think there's a good chance a stock will decline, but you don't know when, and you want to limit your risk.


Together we are  recommending a combination between a bear put spread and selling a naked call. Here's how this works:


BUY 5 March 2011 70 PUT IOC110319P00070000 for approx. $12.05


SELL 5 March 2011 65 PUT IOC110319P00065000 for approx. $9.40


SELL 5 January 2011 85 CALL IOC110122C00085000 for approx. $2.40


This puts you in the $5 March bear put spread at net .25 ($12.05 - $9.40 - $2.40 = 0.25), providing IOC stays below $85 through January's options expiration (21st).  This trade has a $5 upside if IOC is below $65 at March expiration (18th). Note: We are buying or selling 5 puts/calls for each position because that represents about 7.5% of the virtual DHH portfolio, considering the value of the long put position only.  Adjust your positions according to your risk tolerance and portfolio size.) 


The January scenarios are:


#1)  If on January 21, 2011 IOC is below $85 per share (nearly 30% higher than the close on Friday) we will keep the $2.40 per contract premium and reevaluate.


#2)  If on January 21, 2011 IOC is above $85 per share we will be short 500 shares of IOC at $85.


The March scenarios are:


#1) If on March 18, 2011, IOC is below $65 per share the March $70 puts we bought will be worth $5 per contract more than the $65 puts we sold, giving us a $5 profit per contract.

#2) If on March 18, 2011, IOC is between $65 and $70 per share we can roll the options forward to a future expiration date, or depending on the price, take our profits.  For instance, if IOC is at $66 per share, the March $65 PUT we sold can be bought back for $1 per contract, and the March 70 PUT we bought can be sold for $4.  So we would have a $3 per contract profit. Thus, if on March 18th, 2011, IOC is between $65 and $70, our profit is the difference between the two less the net 0.25 paid for the entire position. 


#3) If on March 18, 2011 IOC is above $70 per share we would roll our option trade forward to a future expiration date.


Thus, we will earn the most profit if IOC stays below $65 per share, which we are betting it will.


Summary:  Bear Put Spread and Selling Naked (out of the money) Call for Interoil (IOC) on Monday, October 4, 2010


We also would like to add American Eagle Outfitters ( AEO) to maintain our current slightly long tilt.


From Sabrient's Ratings Report: 



robert shumake

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs <b>News</b> 10/6 - Arrowhead Pride

Good morning, AP! Welcome to another day full of Kansas City Chiefs news. Read and enjoy.

Photo of the Week: iPad in Colorado | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Photo of the Week: iPad in Colorado. Find more Site News news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.

Target doing poor job of selling the iPad? | iLounge <b>News</b>

iLounge news discussing the Target doing poor job of selling the iPad?. Find more iPad news from leading independent iPod, iPhone, and iPad site.






















































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